Canada's Food Price Report 2025
Halifax, Nova ScotiaĚý—ĚýCanada’s Food Price Report (CFPR) 2025Ěýforecasts that overall food prices will increase by 3% to 5%. The average family of four is expected to spend $16,833.67 on food in 2025, an increase of up to $801.56 from last year.ĚýThe current rate is 2.8%. Food prices increased at a slower than anticipated rate in 2024, however food affordability remains a major concern for Canadians.
This year marks the 15th edition ofĚýCanada's Food Price ReportĚý(CFPR),Ěýan annual publication produced collaboratively by ±«Óătv University, the University of Guelph, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Saskatchewan. Each of these universities contributes to enriching the report's scope and regional expertise.ĚýThe cross-country research teamĚýuses historical data sources, machine learning algorithms, and predictive analytics tools to forecast Canadian food prices.Ěý
Table 1: Food Price Forecast for 2025
| Food Categories | Anticipated Changes (%) |
| Bakery | 2% - 4% |
| Dairy | 2% - 4% |
| Fruits | 1% - 3% |
| Meat | 4% - 6% |
| Restaurants | 3% - 5% |
| Seafood | 1% - 3% |
| Vegetables | 3% - 5% |
| Other | 2% - 4% |
| Total Increase in Food Prices | 3% - 5% |
Increased food insecurity
Although there was a downward trend in inflation in 2024, Canadians are still pinching pennies. In April, Statistics Canada reported that in 2023, 22.9% of people in the ten provinces lived in a food-insecure household. That means 8.7 million people, including 2.1 million children, are struggling to afford the food they need. The highest rates of food insecurity were found in Nova Scotia (28.9%), followed by Prince Edward Island (28.6%).Ěý
In March, the Food Banks Canada Hunger Count reported a new record high for food bank visits (2 million), which is a 90% increase compared to 2019. A recent survey by the Agri-Food Analytics Lab shows younger individuals are facing significant economic pressure, with approximately 40% of Gen Z (those born between 1997 and 2012) using savings or borrowing money to buy food (compared to 20% of Boomers).Ěý
It is important to note thatĚýCFPRĚýdoes not include projections for the Northwest Territories, Yukon, or Nunavut. These regions face some of the most severe food affordability challenges in the country. One critical barrier is a lack of detailed, region-specific data on food prices, household expenditures, and consumption patterns. National surveys often exclude remote areas, leaving substantial gaps in knowledge. Improved data collection and tailored metrics are urgently needed to help enhance food security in Canada’s “forgotten North”.Ěý
Food insecurity can have far-reaching implications for individual health. Those living in food-insecure households are more likely to experience critical health conditions, including infectious disease, poor oral health, chronic illness, and heart disease.Ěý
"Canada's Food Price Report is a vital resource that highlights the factors shaping our food systems and impacting food prices. With affordability being a top concern for consumers, policymakers, and businesses, the report offers valuable food price forecasts that reflect the dynamics of global food markets, enabling more informed decision-making in an era of economic and environmental challenges" says Kelleen Wiseman, Academic Director,ĚýMaster of Food and Resource EconomicsĚýat the University of British Columbia.
Contributing Factors
Food prices are influenced by many global factors. A few key factors include climate change, geopolitical conflicts, input and energy costs, inflation, currencies and the trade environment, food and retail distribution, food processing, policies and regulations, consumer awareness and trends, and consumer debt and disposable income. These variables play a pivotal role in shaping projected food prices in Canada.
The weakening of the Canadian dollar against the American dollar will likely reduce the buying power of Canadian importers in 2025. Currently 60% of our agri-food exports are directed to the U.S. Americans are purchasing more Canadian food, however this has also deepened our reliance on the U.S. to sustain our growth. The recent re-election of Donald Trump could widen the gap, given his commitment to reducing American farming costs, and rolling back environmental regulations. “The election of Donald Trump signals a trend toward an increasingly clustered agri-food trading world,” says Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Project Lead, ±«Óătv University. “To safeguard our food security, Canada will need to work closely with North American partners.”
Unpredictable weather events are very challenging for food producers. They impact the volume of food produced and increase the occurrence of crop disease. High temperatures, floods, and drought in West Africa and Brazil affected the price of cocoa and orange juice this year, and Western Canada wildfires blocked rail lines. “Some impacts of adverse weather are starting to be reflected in food prices, such as more expensive meat, due to lengthy droughts in Canada’s beef-producing regions,” says Dr. Stuart Smyth, Campus Lead, University of Saskatchewan. “This has resulted in fewer cattle presently producing meat.”
Shutdowns and strikes at major railways and ports have and may continue to stall millions of dollars in daily trade, slowing domestic shipments and straining Canada’s export commitments. Our manufacturing and agricultural industries have been unable to secure a strong, stable workforce following COVID-19, further reducing volumes.
Consumer movements and new rules
In May, consumers attempted to fight back against corporate grocery greed by staging a boycott of Loblaws. Alas, Loblaw’s revenues increased in 2024. However, it underscored the persistent collective frustration and distrust of large grocers among Canadian consumers. It demonstrated that consumers are paying attention to prices and actively seeking measures to reduce their costs.
In the 2024ĚýCFPR, the Grocery Code of Conduct was noted as an area of interest. The Code has now been written and large retailers including Loblaws, Sobeys, and Metro have joined. The Code is meant to increase competition in the Canadian market, so food manufacturers and smaller grocers will have a louder voice and be able to provide more choice for consumers. It remains to be seen if the Code will provide stability, but progress is positive. Oversight to enforce the Code will be critical to its success.
“As public attention continues to focus on Canada’s food systems in relation to environmental and social impacts, the price and accessibility of food has become an indication of much larger questions for Canadian consumers and producers,” says Evan Fraser, Director of the Arrell Food Institute at the University of Guelph. “The findings of this report, while indicative of continued increases in food prices, show a gradual slowing of that inflation and reflect the impact of Canada’s efforts to increase resilience in the face of cascading crises. A strong focus on innovation can drive further development and continue a trend of high production and increased access for Canadians.”Canada’s Food Price Report marks 15 years of helping consumers understand their annual grocery bill.
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Media Contacts
Dr. Sylvain Charlebois, Director Agri-Food Analytics Lab,
±«Óătv University
sylvain.charlebois@dal.ca
Janet Music, Research Program Coordinator
Agri-Food Analytics Lab,
±«Óătv University
janet.music@dal.ca